Saturday, January 31, 2015

Fade, follow or forget? Should you trust a bettor with $100K on the line?

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One day after collecting a cool $25,000 in our Streak Survivor contest, it's safe to say Covers user 'brackson13' (AKA Jackson Duncan) is on a roll and then some, but does that mean you should jump on the bandwagon?

Jackson backed the Boston Celtics (+7.5) versus the Portland Trail Blazers Thursday evening which proved to be a wise choice, as the Celts won the game outright 90-89 thanks to a last-second bucket by Evan Turner. The pick was his 21st consecutive winner, which means he's only four wins away from winning the grand prize of $100,000.

The Georgia native has chosen the red-hot Atlanta Hawks (-4) versus the Oklahoma City Thunder Friday. On the surface it seems like a safe play considering the Hawks have covered the spread in 14-straight contests and 19 out of their past 20.

With such a hot streak, should you fade or follow a bettor who's correctly chosen 21-straight picks? Many bettors subscribe to a theory called the 'gambler's fallacy' - which is defined as "the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, it will happen less frequently in the future."

For example: If you flip a coin 20 times and the result is tails each time, someone who believes in the gambler's fallacy will think the next flip will be heads because tails is unlikely to happen again. If a bettor is on a hot streak, those who fall under the gambler's fallacy category will believe they're 'due' for a loss - just like how they thought the coin was 'due' to result in heads despite it ultimately resulting on chance.
 
Are you siding with brackson13 once again or are you banking on his luck finally running out? Let us know in the comment section and make sure to visit our Streak Survivor page to keep track of his progress.




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