Monday, February 1, 2016

Cavaliers' controversial coaching change a big benefit to NBA betting
In a week in which there were two meetings among the top three contenders for the Larry O'Brien Trophy, the games were overshadowed by a development off the court. 

Los Angeles Clippers forward Blake Griffin decided to further sabotage his team's chances by breaking his hand on a team equipment manager's face. Of course, in the sports business, off-court drama often fuels the industry more than the games, themselves. Still, a lot is happening on the court. Covers Expert "Big" Al McMordie takes a look at the week ahead in NBA wagering.

Spread watch

It’s true that first impressions die hard. And, after getting embarrassed by the Chicago Bulls in coach Tyronn Lue's first game, many assumed that the firing of David Blatt was ill advised. Some even went further and proclaimed that Lue shouldn’t be allowed to coach in this year's All-Star Game. But Lue's Cavaliers rebounded off that Chicago loss to win their next four games (and cover their last three), including a 117-103 beatdown of the San Antonio Spurs.  

Lue wants his team to play at a much faster pace than did Blatt, and Cleveland has scored 114-plus points in each of the last four games. Even more impressive is the fact that the Cavaliers' "Big Three" of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love have all been important cogs in a more balanced offense.  In Cleveland's last two wins (over the Spurs and Pistons), all three players reached the 20-point plateau.  

This week, the Cavs will play road games at Indiana and Charlotte, before coming back home to take on Boston and New Orleans. And, should Cleveland win its first two games this week, Lue would surpass Steve Kerr for the best win percentage of any coach in NBA history.  

Certainly, Monday's game at Indiana will be a tough test (the Pacers have covered four straight vs. the Cavs), but the upcoming schedule is not that daunting. If Lue's men can get out of Indiana with a win, then I would expect Cleveland to have an 11-game win streak going into its game at Oklahoma City on February 21.

Total watch

In our last two weekly articles, I highlighted the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans, as both had started to play a lot of games Over the total. And each team has continued on that front. New Orleans has played its last eight games Over while Memphis has done the trick in nine of its last 10 games.  

Interestingly, a team I've yet to focus on this season is the defensively-challenged Houston Rockets. But I can’t ignore James Harden & Co. any longer. Houston has played 16 of its last 19 games Over the total, including its last five. And in those last five games, Houston's allowed an average of 116.8 points. For the season, the Rockets' defense is the worst of any team with a .500 (or better) record, ranked No. 28 in defensive efficiency. In comparison, the next-worst team, with a .500 (or better) record, is Memphis, which ranks No. 17.  

On Saturday, Houston will host the Portland Trail Blazers. And, given that 14 of the previous 17 meetings have sailed Over the total (including eight of nine at the Toyota Center), we could see yet another high-scoring affair.

Injury watch

Six-foot-10 Clippers star forward Blake Griffin beat up a 5-foot-8 equipment manager last week, and broke his hand in the process. Griffin was scheduled to play this week after rehabbing a quad injury sustained on December 25, but he now will be sidelined until late March. So his team's already-dwindling championship hopes are hampered further.  

The good news for Los Angeles is that it's been playing well in his absence. Since Christmas, the Clippers are 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS (though mainly against soft competition). But the bad news is that Griffin will miss L.A.’s three most important home games in the season's second half:  Spurs (Feb. 18), Warriors (Feb. 20) and Thunder (Mar. 2).   

Without Griffin, the Clips have realized that their games against the NBA's lightweights are “must wins” and they've generally taken care of business. This week, Los Angeles will play Minnesota (3-19 SU last 22), Orlando (2-12 SU last 14), and Miami (5-7 SU last 12), so the opportunity to pick up three wins is very good.

I especially like their chances to cover against the T-Wolves, as the Clippers have won 14 straight in the series (8-5-1 ATS). Even worse for the Timberwolves is the fact they'll be unrested, and playing their third game in four nights, while the Clippers will have had the previous two days off.

Schedule watch

The San Antonio Spurs have been unbeatable at home this season. They're 25-0 SU and 17-7-1 ATS. But playing away from the Alamo City has been a different story. The Spurs are a mortal 14-8 SU and 13-9 ATS, including 6-7 SU/ATS versus non-losing teams, and 0-3 ATS their last three overall.  

This week, San Antonio will travel to Dallas Friday. The Mavericks have controlled the series at home, going 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five games with their bitter rivals. Dallas will be playing with revenge from a 29-point loss less than three weeks ago, in San Antonio. And the Mavs are 26-15-1 ATS when playing with revenge from a 20-point (or worse) defeat. Don't be surprised if Dallas delivers some payback Friday night.

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