Recommendation: Take Indianapolis (#470)

There’s one key question to answer before we begin any handicap of the Colts – Broncos matchup on Sunday.  Did Andrew Luck find his missing mojo in the fourth quarter of Indy’s OT loss to Carolina on Monday Night?  

If he did, the Colts may be live underdogs here.  If he didn’t, a Colts team that has significant personnel weaknesses on both sides of the football is primed to take another loss on Sunday.

Two weeks ago, the Colts looked lethargic and lifeless, falling behind New Orleans 27-0 at home.  Indy rallied late, thanks to three Luck TD passes, but there has to be an asterisk there – on two of the three TD passes, the Saints cornerback fell down on the play.  It’s surely worth noting that the same Saints defense that shut out Indy for three quarters proceeded to allow six TD passes from Eli Manning last week.

Then last week, in the rain at Carolina, Luck and the Colts offense produced a grand total of two field goals in the first three and a half quarters, while Luck was on the way to the single worst statistical performance of his NFL career.  Then the rain stopped, and Luck exploded, rallying Indy with three late scores to send the game into overtime.  It was certainly a positive sign – a legitimate one, unlike the late rally vs. the Saints – for a QB that ranks #32 in the NFL in passer rating while leading the league in turnovers.

Luck faces another elite defense this week, as the Broncos come to town.  Denver is coming off a signature win against Green Bay, holding mighty Aaron Rodgers to a grand total of 50 net passing yards on his 25 dropbacks.   The Broncos defensive line controlled the game, and their cornerbacks won every matchup with the Packers receivers.  This stop unit leads the NFL in nearly every key statistical category.  They’ve allowed 4.1 yards per play this year.  No other defense is below 4.7; the league average is 5.5. 

And the Broncos got a rare ‘A’ game from Peyton Manning last week as well.  With Manning averaging a season best (by far) 11.7 yards per pass attempt, all of a sudden, the Broncos running game opened up.  That certainly didn’t happen in Denver’s playoff loss to Indy last year, a game where Manning averaged just 4.2 yards per attempt, as the Broncos were held to 13 points on less than 300 total yards.

All the early week money has come on the Broncos, driving this line up to the current number of -5 (as I post this).  But this is not a Grade A spot for Denver, despite the playoff revenge; coming off a signature, marquee national TV win last week.  And with Rob Chudzinski taking over the playcalling duties from former offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton this week, don’t be surprised if the Colts come out with a very aggressive gameplan against Denver, chock full of stuff the Broncos haven’t seen in film review.  Take the Colts.

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