The 2016 Presidential Election will entertain, frustrate and alienate much of the population, but what this one-of-a-kind election isn't more likely to do is impact the way forward for online poker.
Republican candidate Donald Trump is a little a wild card, with there being reasons for him to support or oppose a federal online gaming ban. He has an endorsement from Las Vegas Sands owner Sheldon Adelson, who has made it his life's work to hunt an internet gambling ban. However, the 2 reportedly aren't that chummy and are just aligned on account of their common party. Trump's running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, wrote a letter to the state's congressional delegates last year urging them to support the Adelson-backed Restoration of America's Wire Act (RAWA) online gambling ban.
On the positive side, Trump has owned Atlantic City casinos, where he explored though never got fascinated by online gaming. He did speak out favorably for online gambling regulation five years ago to Forbes.
But an acting U.S. President hasn't ever taken a stance a technique or another on internet poker and that is not more likely to change. In reality that presidents have numerous issues to handle and online gaming isn't a large enough priority to register. Online gambling is much off the radar of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
The Poker Players Alliance isn't endorsing either candidate. The one one that would actually make an impact for online poker is pipe-dream Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, who spoke to PokerNews in support of online poker previous to the 2012 election.
“The reality is we do not see anybody entering the White House and making this a priority,” said John Pappas, executive director of the Poker Players Alliance. “Congress would be the real driver of the sort of legislation and our focus remains on having Congress continue to support the rights of states on this area.”
The biggest concern is that once an election is when Adelson is at his most deadly. He's the biggest donor to candidates from the Republican Party, and when the election ends and the lame-duck Congressional session to finish the year begins, you will be sure he's going to be looking to call in IOUs on those contributions.
Adelson already tipped his hand by getting Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark) to introduce this year's version of Restoration of America’s Wire Act last month. The Washington Post reported that the bill's introduction came soon after Adelson made a $20 million donation to the Senate Leadership Fund.
The bill's text is brief and vague, but Pappas indicated that this can be a sneaky maneuver by design.
The bill appears to acknowledge the states' rights issues that plagued RAWA, making the language slight enough where it passing wouldn't appear to do much. However, Pappas is afraid it might scare banks clear of processing online gaming transactions in states where the activity is licensed and regulated.
“The bill itself is odd and confusing,” Pappas said. “What it does at the surface is plenty of nothing, however it is a type of things so silly that somebody within the negotiation room might say, 'Sure, we'll throw this in if it buys us something.' It's our job to verify lawmakers know this isn't something innocuous and that every one groups who opposed RAWA also needs to oppose this.”
Adelson is anticipated to have less influence in Congress in 2017 because of Republican losses within the election. The Republicans currently hold both chambers of Congress. They're projected to keep up their grasp at the House of Representatives but, within the Senate, FiveThirtyEight.com gives the Democrats a 73-percent chance of taking up the majority.
“If the Democrats take control of the Senate, which seems likely on the moment, I BELIEVE the appetite to push something like that is going to diminish considerably,” Pappas said.
Adelson may also lose a potential ally with the retirement of Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.). Once considered a champion for regulating online poker federally, reports leading as much as the 2014 lame-duck session indicated that he was working with Adelson on a gambling ban.
There's fears that Reid will again attempt to push Adelson's ban within the final lame-duck session before he leaves office, though Reid recently told Gambling Compliance that he didn't plan on doing anything associated with gambling.
Pappas said that he doesn't believe there are any election scenarios that will make the gambling ban kind of prone to pass through the lame-duck. Educating members as to what the bill could do need to be enough to defeat it, and yet the end-of-year session is the most productive chance for Adelson to sneak a bill through in a backroom deal with out a public hearing.
“I think on the federal level, without reference to if there's a change within the Senate or the House, or wherein party has the presidency, it will be very difficult for them to push a federal prohibition bill in 2017,” Pappas said. “They are probably focusing any effort at the end of this year.”
Lead Photos Courtesy of Gage Skidmore: "Donald Trump" (adapted), Gage Skidmore CC BY-SA 2.0; "Hillary Clinton (adapted), Gage Skidmore CC BY-SA 3.0.
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