Last Thursday, I went on 95.7 The Game in the Bay Area and floated the notion that Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr should rest Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut for Saturday night’s marquee showdown at San Antonio.  

At that time, the Warriors held a 3.5-game lead over the Spurs in the race for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference with just 15 contests remaining on the schedule.  Additionally, Golden State was playing at Dallas Friday and has a layup at Minnesota Monday. Use the Spurs game as an opportunity to get Harrison Barnes more time as the top scoring option while resting your stars for the upcoming playoff push. After all, Golden State hadn’t won in San Antonio since 1997.

As you could no doubt imagine, this idea wasn’t well received by Dub Nation.

In the end, Kerr chose to rest only Bogut and the Spurs (-4.5) went on to notch their 33rd consecutive regular season home victory over the Warriors by the final score of 87-79. The reigning MVP connected on just one 3-pointer (1 for 12) in 38 minutes in Golden State’s worst offensive showing since suffering a 91-75 home loss to the Charlotte Bobcats back on February 4, 2014.

In the grand scheme of things, this game meant very little. But at the very least, basketball fans should be stoked on the idea that the high-flying defending champs finally appear to have an adversary worthy of being called a rival. 

Magic had Bird and Jordan, for a time, had the Bad Boy Pistons. The NBA desperately needed somebody to rise up and challenge the Warriors.

From a gambling perspective, however, there are three essential takeaways from Saturday night’s Golden State-San Antonio showdown:

1. Pace: We talked about the importance of this metric in this column a few weeks back and it played a significant role in San Antonio’s win Saturday night. 

When the Warriors hammered the Spurs by 30 points back on January 25, it was the fastest pace the Spurs had played all season. Advantage: Golden State. 

However, Saturday night’s rematch featured the slowest pace the Spurs had played at all season. Advantage: San Antonio.  You’re performing a great disservice to yourself if you aren’t including this metric in all of your basketball handicapping.

2. Response off a loss: The Warriors are 4-2 ATS off a loss this season, with the Over cashing in four of those six matchups. That’s important to keep in mind for Monday’s matchup at Minnesota. However, Golden State isn’t the only NBA team turning a sizeable profit this season when faced with a bounce-back situation:

NBA TEAMS OFF A LOSS (ATS) IN 2015-2016

San Antonio: 8-2 ATS
Golden State: 4-2 ATS
Memphis: 19-10-1 ATS
Portland: 22-12 ATS
Miami: 17-11-1 ATS
Denver: 24-16-1 ATS

What do all six of these teams have in common? They’re covering the spread at least 60.0 percent of the time when coming off a loss.  

NBA TEAMS OFF A LOSS (OVER/UNDER) IN 2015-2016

Golden State: 4-2
Portland: 22-12
Milwaukee: 25-14
Denver: 24-15-2
Sacramento: 24-16-1

The Over cashes more than 60 percent of the time for all five of these teams when they are coming off a loss. But there’s another profitable angle you should be considering for teams coming off a loss and it’s just as simple:

NBA TEAMS OFF A LOSS (UNDER/OVER) IN 2015-2016

Los Angeles Clippers: 16-7-1
New York: 26-15
Charlotte: 18-11
Miami: 17-11-1

The Under is hitting more than 60 percent of the time for each of these four teams when coming off a loss.  

3. Stephen Curry: The reigning MVP scored only 14 points in over 37 minutes of action Saturday night against the Spurs while connecting on just one of 12 3-pointers (.083). Here’s a breakdown of how Curry bounces back this season in the next game out after shooting 20 percent or worse from 3-point range:

November 7 at Sacramento: 2/10
November 9 vs. Detroit: 3/7

January 2 vs. Denver: 1/5
January 4 vs. Charlotte: 5/10

February 6 vs. Oklahoma City: 1/9
February 9 vs. Houston: 7/16

March 6 at Los Angeles Lakers: 1/10
March 7 vs. Orlando: 7/13

As you can tell, Curry bounces back with a bang off a poor effort, as the Golden State point guard is averaging 5.5 successful 3-pointers while shooting .478 from deep in the four games following a performance of .200 or worse from three-point range.

Keep this in mind as it pertains to Curry prop bets for Monday night’s game at Minnesota.

But the real kicker here as it pertains to Monday night prop bets in the Golden State-Minnesota matchup focuses on Warriors shooting guard Klay Thompson, who is averaging 22.1 points per game this season. If you eliminate the six matchups Thompson has played coming off a loss, the two-time All-Star is averaging 21.5 points per game.

But in the six games coming off a loss, Thompson’s scoring average soars to 27.8 points per game.

Just a little nugget to consider when trying to get next week off on the right foot.

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