Friday, April 29, 2016

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Every year in every sport we see a couple of players who turn in hot starts that aren't entirely in step with what we think from them. A number of the time, those hot starts can also be attributed to randomness and we see those players fall back to earth. Sometimes, though, there are underlying reasons to believe what we're seeing is the brand new normal for a player. Today I’m going to have a look at a pair hitters and a pair pitchers whom I FEEL have turned over a brand new leaf and appear to be different players than we’ve previously seen. I dug into some Fangraphs data to seek out guys I FEEL have stepped it up a notch. The expectancy is that these players can sustain something on the subject of what they’ve flashed within the first three weeks of the season.

Colby Rasmus

‘Plate control’ is a term baseball fans hear so much but it surely isn’t quantified all that frequently when it gets referenced. To me, walks and strikeouts are big components of plate control. Rasmus thus far within the 2016 season has the most important increase in walk percentage (BB%) within the major leagues by a mile. During the last three years, he’d walked in 8.6% of plate appearances. This year, that number has greater than doubled, as much as 21.3%. While lets write that off as fluky and it’s probably slightly inflated, Rasmus has doubled down by seeing the fifth largest decrease in strikeout percentage (K%) within the big leagues thus far this season. These two factors lead me to believe that the longtime hyped prospect Rasmus is finally beginning to hone his immense talent and will be in for a monster season.

Nolan Arenado

Arenado was a bona fide star entering the season. He’s been superb to start out the year with a .273 average, 8 home runs, 18 runs scored and 19 RBI. So why is he here? Well, the Rockies third baseman has also increased his walk rate and decreased his strikeout rate. However the real reason he’s here's because he’s done all this while sporting the league’s 6th highest hard hit percentage and a putrid .206 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). To place that during perspective, Arenado’s career BABIP is sitting at .287. So if he’s putting up an excellent begin to the year while sporting a .206 BABIP and the league’s 6th highest hard hit percentage, what's his season going to appear like when luck turns in his favor? I’m sure the Rockies are itching to seek out out.

Noah Syndergaard

Casual baseball fans may view Syndergaard as merely a flamethrower who the league hasn’t caught up to, however the die-hards are pretty sure that we’re seeing a valid frontline ace, even on an absolutely loaded Mets pitching staff. ‘Thor’, who looks the part, was completely untouchable up to now this season. He somehow has a 1.69 ERA while sporting a .355 BABIP and having opponents steal bases on him like he’s a bit leaguer. I ASSUME when you’re throwing 100 mile per hour fastballs and 92 mile per hour sliders while striking out 12.83 batters per 9 innings and only walking 1.35, you might have just a little extra room for error.

Taijuan Walker

As a Mariners fan, I’m really hoping we’re seeing a real leap here with Walker. He’s been great through four starts, racking up 25 strikeouts and only 3 walks in 25 innings of labor. Probably the most exciting part to the baseball nerd side of me, however, is the newly found ability to generate groundballs. Last year the house run ball was Walker’s Achilles heel, as he sat at 1.33 HR/9 and a 38.6% groundball rate. This year, those numbers are an eye fixed popping .36 HR/9 and 55.1% groundball rate. While it might be shocking if either of these numbers stayed at those levels all year, a big improvement from last year in those categories could mean Walker going from solid starter to borderline ace.

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Thanks for reading. Find me on Twitter @IanJ300 with any questions.


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